A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
